# Gary Marcus 指出多位CEO宣称已进入奇点的言论缺乏定义且不真实，提醒业界理性看待AI进展 - 来源：Gary Marcus - 发布时间：2026-07-29 00:47 - AIWatch 分数：53 - AIWatch 标记：未精选 - AIWatch 链接：https://aiwatch.icu/events/evt_01kymtc9mvwdjze33ecr61b7kr - 原文链接：https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/sorry-sam-and-elon-we-have-not-reached ## 精选理由 常规快讯，保留列表 ## AI 摘要 Gary Marcus 指出多位CEO宣称已进入奇点的言论缺乏定义且不真实，提醒业界理性看待AI进展。 ## 正文 Remember “CEO said a thing” journalism? A lot of CEOs just said a thing: X avatar for @haider1 Haider.@haider1 Sam Altman: we are in the singularity Demis Hassabis: when we look back on this time, i think we will realize that we were standing in the foothills of the singularity Elon Musk: we have entered the singularity, just the very early stages of it Jensen Huang: we've achieved AGI 5:00 AM · Jul 27, 2026 · 452K Views 323 Replies · 339 Reposts · 4.02K Likes Don’t take them seriously.1 Partly because, well CEO’s gotta CEO2: In the modern era, making outlandish claims is practically in the job description: X avatar for @TeslaAndDoge EV Guy@TeslaAndDoge Elon’s missed promises 😳 2:29 PM · Jul 27, 2026 · 310K Views 217 Replies · 641 Reposts · 5.31K Likes I don’t even know why Sam’s singularity remark (made recently during a podcast) is even news, since Elon has been saying it all along, e.g., in January X avatar for @elonmusk Elon Musk@elonmusk @DavidSHolz We have entered the Singularity 9:00 AM · Jan 4, 2026 · 3M Views 1.6K Replies · 2.28K Reposts · 16.1K Likes and he more or less said it last year, too. X avatar for @elonmusk Elon Musk@elonmusk We are on the event horizon of the singularity 11:51 PM · Feb 23, 2025 · 66.9M Views 15.5K Replies · 14.3K Reposts · 181K Likes and as far back as 2017, longer than he has been touting fleets of Robotaxis: X avatar for @elonmusk Elon Musk@elonmusk @RickandMorty The singularity for this level of the simulation is coming soon. I wonder what the levels above us look like. Good chance they are less interesting and deeper levels are better. So far, even our primitive sims are often more entertaining than reality itself. 3:12 PM · Oct 5, 2017 136 Replies · 1.84K Reposts · 12.2K Likes Sam, as is often the case, is simply aping Elon. (And for that matter Sam himself said it a year ago, in a self-contradictory blog that never defines the term.) § Another reason not to take the whole lot of them seriously is that, so far as I know, none of them has actually defined what they mean. So far as I know nobody other than me even bothered to ask. As Neil Turkewitz put it (replying to me): X avatar for @neilturkewitz neil turkewitz@neilturkewitz @GaryMarcus The “singularity” is a very easy goalpost to move. It means everything & nothing. An article of faith. 2:55 PM · Jul 28, 2026 · 15 Views 1 Reply · 1 Like § No matter how you slice it, we just are not actually there yet. If we were, we wouldn’t be once again seeing what I have been calling the Klarna Effect, the AI hype two-step, in which employers boast of using AI to reduce head count only to quietly rehire humans. But here we are: According to the WSJ, “The push to expand head count, at least modestly, is a reversal from the prevailing corporate messaging during much of the AI era. Major employers largely held back on adding people due to economic uncertainties or a belief that artificial intelligence could shoulder more tasks on the job. But some executives say the costs and limitations of AI now demand that more people be added; others want to hire people back following layoffs.” § And we certainly haven’t reached the age of abundance that Peter Diamandis and Elon Musk keep insisting is a natural consequence of AI. X avatar for @infraa_ Robert (infra 🏛️⌛️)@infraa_ Can anyone point me to the part where prices are "going down rapidly"? X avatar for @financialjuice FinancialJuice @financialjuice Trump asked on Fed this week: Costs are going down rapidly. 4:47 PM · Jul 27, 2026 · 38K Views 33 Replies · 87 Reposts · 695 Likes § Nor have we reached a moment in “which technological growth accelerates beyond human control” We can still perfectly well shut this stuff off if we want to. (It’s mainly because of greed that we don’t, stepping on the gas rather than the brake.) That much-discussed OpenAI hack of HuggingFace? A human at OpenAI launched it; with a physical firewall it wouldn’t have happened. It wasn’t spontaneous combustion; it was a drill. Had OpenAI ordinary guardrail classifiers been in place, it wouldn’t have happened. It doesn’t count as “uncontrollable” if you have to give the system a head and shoulders head start. (Yes, we do have poorly controlled AI, but that’s not new, either.) § Another definition of the singularity, per a TIME interview with Ray Kurzweil, who is often associated with the term, is “a moment when humans merge with AI via brain-to-computer interfaces to become “much smarter””. We are clearly not there yet, either. § Another notion is that a singularity is a moment in which we can no longer peer forward into the future, but I don’t think we are there yet, either, as an entrepreneur on X pointed out, rightly ripping intp all the recent Singularity talk as nothing more than PR: X avatar for @Polymathochist 𝙶𝚎𝚘𝚛𝚐𝚎 𝙶𝚘𝚍𝚞𝚕𝚊 👾@Polymathochist PR theater - a singularity is supposed to be the point where our ability to foresee events collapses. If you can identify it in real time and explain where it’s going, you’ve just argued against your own definition. 🙄 X avatar for @kimmonismus Chubby♨️ @kimmonismus Sam Altman „we are now in the singularity“ And yet 99% of people outside of our bubble don’t get what’s happening. 4:02 AM · Jul 26, 2026 · 81 Views § Going back to a justly famous paper by I. F. Good in 1965, the crux of the Singularity is supposed to be something far beyond any human: Let an ultraintelligent machine be defined as a machine that can far surpass all the intellectual activities of any man however clever. Since the design of machines is one of these intellectual activities, an ultraintelligent machine could design even better machines; there would then unquestionably be an ‘intelligence explosion’, and the intelligence of man would be left far behind. Thus the first ultraintelligent machine is the last invention that man need ever make, provided that the machine is docile enough to tell us how to keep it under control. — Speculations Concerning the First Ultraintelligent Machine (1965), IF Good. In this sense, the singularity is usually supposed to mean a step beyond AGI that can do anything a person, even an expert, can do, and much more. The idea that we have reached that point is laughable. Here are 10 examples of things that “as good or better than the best human” AGI ought to be able to do, borrowed from the bet I made here 18 months ago with Miles Brundage: The number of the above that actual current AI can do is still by my count no more than two. And one could easily come up with many more. Which is part of why a bunch of companies are quietly rehiring. § None of this means we won’t someday (most likely not this decade) reach a moment of superintelligence. And if we don’t radically up our game on AI safety, it could be out of our control. Maybe it will help lower prices; maybe it won’t. Brain-computer interfaces will surely improve greatly (though it may take many decades or even centuries to get where Kurzweil dreams of). But intelligence is multidimensional; we may have made lots of progress on some, and not so much on others. I doubt there will be a single magic moment that our descendants think of as the “Singularity”. If there is, it’s not one that’s going to happen in this decade. CEOs can say whatever they like. That doesn’t make them true. P.S. The good news is that you don’t have to be a CEO to make stuff up. Here’s a projection from May that got 1.4 million views that now, two Chinese models and the death of tokenmaxxing later, looks like it has very little chance to be true: 1 What Demis said – foothills – is safer. 2 Note that this list of Elon’s failed prediction is incomplete and omits for example Musk’s promises that we would achieve AGI by 2025, which proved to be false, and doesn’t reference pending things like his not-looking-promising prediction that he would have a man on Mars by 2031 in the “worst case”. No posts